Empirical modeling of money demand

This paper examines several central issues in the empirical modeling of money demand. These issues include economic theory, data measurement, parameter constancy, the opportunity cost of holding money, cointegration, model specification, exogeneity, and inferences for policy. Review of these issues at a general level is paralleled by discussion of specific empirical applications, including some new results on the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom.The author is a staff economist in the Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 USA, and may be reached on the Internet at ericsson@frb.gov. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Reserve Bank of Australia, or any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System or the Reserve Bank of Australia. I am grateful for the generous hospitality of the Reserve Bank of Australia, where I was on secondment when this research was begun. I also wish to thank Tony Brennan, Gordon de Brouwer, Julia Campos, Ed Nelson, Jerome Fahrer, Jon Faust, Steve Grenville, David Hendry, John Irons, Katarina Juselius, Neva Kerbeshian, Helmut Lütkepohl, Dieter Nautz, Athanasios Orphanides, Kevin Prestwich, Robert Subbaraman, Timo Teräsvirta, Jenny Wilkinson, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and discussions. All numerical results were obtained using PcGive Professional Version 9.0; see Doornik and Hendry (1996). This paper is a condensed version of Ericsson (1998), which provides additional empirical and analytical examples and more extensive references. The data may be obtained from the Internet at http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oekonometrie/engl/data.html.     

Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece

This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, equilibrium correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece over 1976–1994. The aggregate M3 was targeteduntil recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines. In spite of financial innovation, financial liberalization, and large fluctuations in the inflation rate, the estimated model is remarkabli stable. Dynamics are important, with price and income elasticities being much smaller in the short run than in the long run. The model provides a better understanding of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation and the effects of monetary policy in Greece.The authors are staff economists in the Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA, respectively. They may be reached on the Internet at ericsson@frb.gov and ssharma@imf.org. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting those of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the International Monetary Fund, or other members of their staffs. We wish to thank the Bank of Greece for providing the data; Sophocles Brissimis, Nicholas Paleocrassas, and George Simigiannis for offering insights into institutional aspects of the Greek financial system; and Richard Agénor, Caroline Atkinson, Adi Brender, Julia Campos, Dimitri Demekas, David Hendry, Katarina Juselius, Tim Lane, Helmut Lütkepohl, Jaime Marquez, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. An earlier version of this paper appeared as Ericsson and Sharma (1996). All numerical results were obtained using PcGive Professional Versions 8 and 9: see Doornik and Hendry (1994a, 1994b, 1996, 1997) and Hendry and Doornik (1996). The data may be obtained from the Internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/ oekonometrie/engl/data.html     

Harnessing third parties as surrogate regulators: achieving environmental outcomes by alternative means

The need to design innovative strategies alternative or complementary to that of government regulation is becoming increasingly apparent. This article examines one such innovation: to use both business and commercial entities and non‐commercial third parties as surrogates for, or complements to, direct government regulation. This strategy will still involve government intervention, but selectively and in combination with a range of market solutions, and of public and private orderings. The contexts and circumstances in which third parties might be used as surrogate regulators are considered; the impediments to them acting in this role and the extent and circumstances in which they might be overcome are identified; and the roles that governments might play in facilitating, encouraging or otherwise ensuring that third parties do act successfully as surrogate regulators are examined. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Building firm-specific advantages in multinational corporations: the role of subsidiary initiative

This paper investigates how subsidiary companies are able to contribute to the firm-specific advantages of the multinational corporation (MNC). Specifically we examine the determinants of the contributory role of the subsidiary and subsidiary initiative. The study reveals the following significant relationships: (a) internal subsidiary resources in combination with initiative have a strong positive impact on the subsidiary's contributory role; (b) subsidiary initiative is strongly associated with the leadership and entrepreneurial culture in the subsidiary; and (c) contributory role is strongly associated with subsidiary autonomy and a low level of local competition. We discuss the implications of these findings and some of the theoretical issues associated with subsidiary initiative. Our provisional conclusion is that MNC subsidiaries can not only contribute to firm-specific advantage creation, they can also drive the process. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“CONVENTIONAL” MONETARY POLICY IN OLG MODELS: REVISITING THE ASSET-SUBSTITUTION CHANNEL

Conventional monetary policy involves actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities: the former sets a nominal interest rate and the latter sets lump-sum taxes to finance the implied flow of interest payments on government debt. We model such policy within an overlapping generations framework and show that absent any other frictions the magnitude of the nominal interest rate gives rise to asset substitution between government debt and either private debt or capital—substitution that has both real and nominal effects. Such substitution is not in standard New Keynesian models because their dynastic specification implies that government debt is not net wealth.     

Work-from-home and the risk of securities misconduct

In the wake of the global pandemic, a challenge for CEOs and boards is to set a stakeholder-acceptable organizational balance between remote and traditional office working. However, the risks of work-from-home are not yet fully understood. We describe competing theories that predict the effect on misconduct of a corporate shift to work-from-home. Using internal bank data on securities traders we exploit lockdown variation induced by emergency regulation of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveals that working from home lowers the likelihood of securities misconduct; ultimately those working from home exhibit fewer misconduct alerts. The economic significance of these changes is large. Our study makes an important step toward understanding the link between the balance of work locations and the risk that comes with this tradeoff.     

The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports

Review of World Economics - The paper uses recently available data on the core economic provisions of PTAs to identify which (types of) provisions seem to promote bilateral exports and the...     

‘Regrettable-escapism’ the negative effects of mobile app use: A retail perspective

Despite the enhanced shopping opportunities that mobile devices offer to consumers, there is a fine line between consumers enjoying the mobile shopping process and them regretting the time spent involved in it. Through the lens of Uses and Gratifications Theory (U>) and drawing on Flow Theory, this study aims to understand the effects of consumers' interactions with mobile shopping apps on their intention to reuse the app in the future, loyalty towards the brand and brand reputation. Study 1, through a questionnaire (n = 1024), provides insight into the positive and negative relationships between Utilitarian and Hedonic gratifications on intentions to reuse a retailer's mobile app, loyalty towards the b,rand and the brand's reputation. Through undertaking 24 in-depth interviews, Study 2 provides deeper insight into these relationships to uncover the complex nature of the negative effects of escapism. Findings demonstrate that the addictive nature of retailers' shopping apps lead to regrettable escapism. The flow state of mind experienced during escapism, becoming engrossed and notions of time-distortion, leave consumers with feelings of guilt and frustration due to the perceived wasted time spent on the retailer's app. Accordingly, this study advances theoretical understanding of escapism and its negative effects with ubiquitous, portable smartphones. The research provides implications for retailers and policy makers, while offering avenues for future research.